How secure is Simone's AA gold?

There's now a popular thread asking who will win women's AA silver and bronze. I found that interesting because it just assumes that Simone will win gold. So I figured I'd start a new thread asking just how secure Simone's AA gold was. Clearly, she is the favorite. If she hits close to what she is capable of, she will win. And if she has a meltdown (multiple falls or other major mistakes), then she won't. But what if she has a not-so-great competition (say, one fall and maybe a couple of small-ish errors), but not a total meltdown? Would she still win? And who might challenge her?

How secure is Simone's AA gold?